Fluktuasi ekonomi Indonesia akibat COVID-19: Analisis pengangguran dan PDB berdasarkan hukum okun

Nura, Nurobiah and Muhammad, Ihsan and Nabil, Ahmad and Siti, Sopiah (2024) Fluktuasi ekonomi Indonesia akibat COVID-19: Analisis pengangguran dan PDB berdasarkan hukum okun. UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung. (Submitted)

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Abstract

ENGLISH: The impact of Covid-19 has had a major impact on the global economy, including Indonesia, by reducing economic activity and increasing unemployment. In controlling the transmission of the virus, the government has issued policies such as Large-Scale Social Enforcement and the Enforcement of Community Activity Restrictions. As a result, many companies lost money until they went out of business, triggering an increase in the unemployment rate. The government has implemented various fiscal and monetary policies to minimize the impact of the pandemic, including Direct Cash Assistance and other economic stimulus. In this study, qualitative methods are used to analyze the impact of the epidemic on the Indonesian economy through a review of GDP and unemployment rates. Based on data, Indonesia's GDP dropped drastically to -3.49% in 2020 but gradually recovered to 4.94% in 2023. The unemployment rate also fluctuated, from 5.28% in 2019 to a peak of 7.07% in 2020, and returned to stable near pre-pandemic conditions in 2023. The results show that the economic impact of COVID-19 is consistent with Okun's law, where the decrease in GDP is the opposite of the increase in unemployment. The decline in economic activity has had a major impact, but a continuous recuperation can be seen from the stabilization of GDP and the unemployment rate in 2023. INDONESIA: Pandemi COVID-19 sejak akhir 2019 berdampak signifikan pada ekonomi global, termasuk Indonesia, dengan mengakibatkan penurunan aktivitas ekonomi dan peningkatan pengangguran. Berbagai kebijakan pembatasan sosial, seperti Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB) dan Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (PPKM), diberlakukan untuk mengendalikan penyebaran virus. Akibatnya, banyak perusahaan yang merugi hingga gulung tikar, sehingga memicu kenaikan angka pengangguran. Pemerintah menerapkan berbagai kebijakan fiskal dan moneter untuk meminimalisasi dampak pandemi, termasuk Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) dan stimulus ekonomi lainnya. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif untuk menganalisis dampak pandemi pada ekonomi Indonesia melalui tinjauan PDB dan tingkat pengangguran. Berdasarkan data, PDB Indonesia turun drastis ke -3,49% pada 2020 namun berangsur pulih dengan angka 4,94% pada 2023. Tingkat pengangguran juga fluktuatif, dari 5,28% pada 2019 hingga puncaknya 7,07% pada 2020, dan kembali stabil mendekati kondisi pra-pandemi pada 2023. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa dampak ekonomi dari COVID-19 sejalan dengan hukum Okun, di mana penurunan PDB berbanding terbalik dengan peningkatan pengangguran. Penurunan aktivitas ekonomi berdampak besar, namun pemulihan bertahap terlihat dari stabilisasi PDB dan angka pengangguran pada 2023.

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